Sports Betting Tip: Underdogs in the NFL

In the media coverage of the NFL, there is a great deal of emphasis on the best teams in the league. There is usually a debate about which of the top teams in the league have the best chance at reaching the Super Bowl. While it is only natural for the media focus to be centered around the elite squads in the NFL, the bettor must have an open mind when it comes to the 32 teams in the league. In some ways, the media hype surrounding the glamour teams in the NFL may actually help a savvy bettor.

nfl betting

NFL Betting Popularity

Because of the tremendous popularity of the NFL, sport betting sites see more action on this sport than others. In addition to the professional bettors, there are a lot of NFL fans that will wager on the games. Generally, most fans or casual bettors will wager on the favorite to cover a point spread. Because of these bets, many NFL lines will be shaded towards the favored team.

There are instances where it can be difficult for the oddsmaker to draw any action on an underdog. While it isn’t too hard to draw equal interest in a matchup between two squads that are both competitive, a mismatch on paper will draw some predictable bets. However, the fan’s logic of riding a favorite can be misguided in many ways. Favorites win more often than not in the NFL. In a typical NFL season, favorites will win straight up anywhere from 60-65 percent of the time. However, favorites aren’t any more likely to cover a point spread than an underdog over the course of a season.

Covered or Favorites : A Look at NFL Betting Strategies

In many recent seasons, underdogs have actually covered at a slightly higher rate than favorites. The general fan may rely too much on the past to anticipate future outcomes. As the new season has started, many casual sports bettors will assume that success or failure from a prior year will be repeated. Obviously, there are some franchises that are fairly consistent. In the last decade, the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts were Super Bowl contenders more often than not. Still, many other teams were more inconsistent.

Since 2001, many different NFC franchises have represented the conference in the Super Bowl. This parity indicates how difficult it can be to maintain a high level of play in the NFL. [Read more…]


How to Bet on Preseason NFL Football

The beginning of the 2015-16 NFL football season kicks off August 9th with the NFL Hall of Fame game. The Pittsburgh Steelers will take on the Minnesota Vikings in the Steel City. It sounds like an exciting game to wager on during the regular season, but betting on preseason games is a bit different. Here are a few tips to help you make the most educated wager:

Keep the Bet Small

It’s exciting to finally have American football back on television, but don’t be tempted to go crazy the first preseason game. It’s always important to understand how a preseason game works before you place a wager. After all, preseason is all about fine tuning each team’s action plan for the season.

NFL Preseason 2015 Bet

This means the starters usually play the 1st quarter and the 3rd quarter, and then the back-ups and 3rd stringers play the rest. It allows the players to build chemistry, get all the kinks out of the way, and it even helps decide who will be on the final 53-man roster. We recommend betting no more than 30% of what you would normally play.

The Offseason

This is where most of your research will come into play. Take for instance the Pittsburgh Steelers. Troy Polamalu retired, their defense has basically been overhauled with new talent, and their 1st string offense could be the best in the league this year. You won’t be seeing Big Ben playing for an extensive period of time, because he’s the centerpiece of their offense.

Then you have to take a look at the Minnesota Vikings. They dealt with Adrian Peterson’s antics the entire offseason, the franchise is sold on keeping Teddy Bridgewater as the mainstay quarterback, they acquired deep threat WR Mike Wallace, and said goodbye to several defensive players; including Jared Allen.

Expect to see WR Antonio Brown and WR Mike Wallace get a few chances downfield. If any of them connect, this could be a surprising “Over” line to wager. It’s surprising, because the first game of the preseason typically isn’t a high scoring affair. In fact, over the last 5 years; the average total points during was 31. In fact, the game that went over was the New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins in 2013’s Hall of Fame game (44).

The Backup Players

One area you also need to research is the back players. This goes far deeper than the quarterbacks. Even though we would side with Shaun Hill who is probably one of the better back-ups in the league, the running backs and defense will be just as important. Don’t worry too much about the wide outs except for the first-stringers, because none of the back-ups will “really” make an impact. [Read more…]


Making Money Betting on Sports with Increased Knowledge

Becoming a successful sports bettor, or even a professional, requires a substantial amount of knowledge. Since American football is one of the most wagered sporting events around the world, let’s use it as our first example. It’s important to realize this is much more than simply cheering for your favorite team or going with the “sexy” pick.

Studying the Wager

It all begins with understanding the rules of the wager. For instance, Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos play Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens in week 1 of the 2015 NFL season. Taking an educated guess, by the time the line comes out, it will most likely be somewhere around 7 1/2 points (DENVER -7 1/2 Baltimore). If you are just starting out as a sports bettor, taking Denver and giving the points means, they will need to win by 8 points in order for you to win the bet.

Betting on Sports

There are several ways to bet on a professional football game like:

a. Spreads
b. Teasers
c. Parlays
d. Money Lines
e. Props

If a sports bettor doesn’t understand how each one of these work, there is a good possibility he or she will lose money. I could break down each one of these down for you, but you can read the instructions on any online betting site before you get started.

Knowing more about the Teams

The next step is learning as much as possible about the teams, heading into the first game of the season (or whatever time of year you are betting). In our example, both of these teams have had several changes during the off-season. One if not more of these changes could make the difference in the upcoming wager. For instance, John Fox is no longer the coach of the Denver Broncos.

Anytime a new head coach comes in, there are bound to be changes. Whether it’s to each game’s plan of attack, the offensive and defensive playbooks, hiring in new coaches in other areas of the team, and the list goes on and on. I hate to admit it, but about twenty years ago I wagered on the San Francisco 49ers and lost big. Why? One of the biggest reasons is because their quarterback was hurt and couldn’t play (at the time the quarterback was Steve Young, so maybe even longer than 20 years). [Read more…]


Andy Murray Sparks Wimbledon Hopes with Madrid Mastery

As the last winning point thudded home in Madrid and Andy Murray celebrated jubilantly with his close-knit team, the Scot achieved something he had never dream possible: beating the master, Rafael Nadal, in a clay court final.

Up until 2015, Murray – despite bagging an extensive collection of silverware in his career – had never won a tournament on clay before. And he had certainly never come close to beating perhaps the sport’s finest ever clay court specialist along the way.

It is his poor resume on the surface that led many pundits and bookmakers to write Murray off, and it’s possible that his success came as a surprise even to him.

So what has been the secret to this thrilling upturn in form?

Andy Murray

Wedded Bliss

Earlier this year, Murray was betrothed to his long-term partner Kim in a ceremony in his native Scotland.

Perhaps it’s no coincidence then that the world number four’s form has improved so markedly, as he also picked up the Munich Open title in April.

And after claiming that momentous win over Nadal in the Madrid Open, Murray was seen scrawling ‘marriage works’ in fluorescent green ink on a Spanish TV camera covering the action.

Let’s hope the honeymoon period carries over to June and the start of the grass court season.

Wimbledon Bound

Of course, just prior to the most famous tennis tournament of them all comes the French Open, one of four Grand Slam events in the calendar.

With his recent upturn in form on clay, Murray may well fancy his chances of progressing pretty deep into the tournament, although he won’t be amongst the bookmakers’ favourites – that honour will fall to the likes of Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori.

Instead, the Scot and his team will be looking ahead to Wimbledon, the jewel in tennis’s crown on the famous grass of the All England Club.

And there is plenty of cause for optimism too: Murray has reached the quarter-finals – at the very least – of the tournament in his last seven visits.

In 2012, he looked on course for his Grand Slam win after taking the first set against Roger Federer, but would eventually succumb to the Swiss sensation.

However, he didn’t let that defeat get to him and returned the following year – once again battling through to the final. This time he took on his nemesis Djokovic, and in a surprisingly one-sided conclusion he took the title in straight sets; thus becoming the first Brit since Fred Perry in 1936 to lift tennis’s ultimate prize.

He suffered a painful loss to Grigor Dimitrov in 2014 following surgery to mend a long-standing back injury, and so in 2015 will be looking to make up for lost time.

And with his new wife watching on from the stands, who’s to say that Murray won’t lift the Wimbledon trophy for a second time.


UEFA Champions League

With this season’s UEFA Champions League now at the quarter-final stage, Bayern Munich and Barcelona have emerged as clear favourites with the bookmakers to lift the trophy in Berlin.

With the draw panning out the way it did, there can not be much surprise that Bayern Munich, under the stewardship of Pep Guardiola, are fancied by many to lift the Champions League in 2015. There can be little doubt that Bayern will overcome Porto over two legs and progress to the semi-finals. Barcelona have a somewhat more difficult task against Chelsea’s conquerors, Paris Saint-Germain. The two teams have met four times in the Champions league recently, without too much to separate them. However, with the second leg to be played at the Camp Nou and the great form they are in, Barcelona should have enough to progress.

Champions League

Italian giants Juventus, will be delighted with their draw and should have enough to defeat Monaco over two legs. Pulling away at the top of Serie A, Juventus can really focus on the Champions League and should be able to prevent Monaco from causing another upset in the competition.

Easily the most anticipated tie, is the meeting between last year’s finalists, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. Despite losing the final to their rivals last season, Atletico Madrid have a fantastic recent record against Real Madrid. Out of their last 8 meetings, Real Madrid have not managed to defeat Atletico once, inside 90 minutes, yet with many, remain as clear favourites to progress to the semi-finals. Despite sitting fourth, some 9 points off the leaders Barcelona, Diego Simeone and his team, have the beating of Real Madrid and consolidated that, with a tremendous 4-0 victory over the Champions League holders in La Liga, at the start of February.

Furthermore, Real Madrid are struggling for form at the moment, losing three of their last four matches and there seems to be no sign of them turning that corner. With the first leg to be played at the Estadio Vicente Calderon, Carlo Ancelotti can not afford a repeat performance of their 4-0 defeat, otherwise the tie could be over before the second leg even takes place.

With the retention of their La Liga title seeming more and more unlikely, as Barcelona continue to dominate, come mid-April, Simeone may decide that it’s time to concentrate on progressing in the Champions League.

At this stage of the competition, it’s difficult to pick a winner but with the know-how of defeating Real Madrid and the experience of reaching the final last season, Atletico Madrid have what it takes to lift the UEFA Champions League in 2015.


It’s Time for The Super Bowl – Get Your Bets In!

The Super Bowl kicks off this Sunday, and it’s going to be between the Seahawks and the Patriots. Super Bowl ads are already being discussed, and people are already hitting the grocery store for all of the snacks necessary for the big game. It’s going to be a very long Sunday, and glory rests with the team that can truly pull ahead to the big win.

But what about the betting crowd? It’s time to get your bets in, and there are a few things that you might want to think about.

First and foremost, you want to see whether you’re going to bet on the favorite or not. There are so many different bets to choose from in the world of NFL betting, but the Super Bowl tends to cloud people’s judgment. Instead of looking at the numbers, they go immediately to “gut feelings” of who will win and who will lose. That’s a bad idea, on a wide variety of levels. Of course, if you don’t plan to have a lot of skin in the game, you can probably get away with just doing a few prop bets. But if you’re trying to think like a serious gambler, you need to think about as much data as possible to reap the rewards you deserve.

Super Bowl

One, betting on the favorite isn’t always a good idea. But looking at this year’s Super Bowl underdog yields some strong disadvantages. It can be summed up in one word: Deflategate. The fact that there is an ominous cloud of confusion, cheating, and misdirection around the Patriots means that they could be at a strong disadvantage in the actual Super Bowl. Morale is going to be a lot lower than it would be otherwise, giving you the opportunity to either bet on how much the Pats will lose by, or how much they will win by if they manage to do an upset.

Big money can ride on these games, making it very tempting to bet the farm on the outcomes. Be sure that you’re still not risking so much money on the Super Bowl that you cannot afford to replace later on. If you can stick to that rule, you’ll be better off than people that feel the need to throw everything they have on the “big game” so they can get the “big win” that they’ve been chasing all season. Do you know what real punters call people that do this?

Broke. :)

Be sure that you’re staying as strategic as possible on this game. Strip away the hype and what do you get? A football game, like any other football game. NFL guidelines will still have to be observed, even though the stakes on the game are so high. We will still have a winner and a loser. Life will go on after the Super bowl, and both teams will still make a lot of money in the long run. Make sure that when you sit down to make your bets before the game that you know not just who you’re going for, but why you’re going to put hard earned money on their outcome. That’s the difference between real betting and just throwing your money into the wind. Good luck!


5 biggest flops in Premier League season 14-15

With £835 million spent in the summer transfer window, it was yet another influx of big signings and talented prospects. Big name signings like Diego Costa and Alexis Sanchez have flourished while bargains such as Diafra Sakho have shined. However, there have been plenty of flop signings as well as we take a look at some of them.

Bacary Sagna

Bacary Sagna

Joining from Arsenal on a free transfer, the French international has only made 6 appearances in the Premier League so far. With Pablo Zabaleta ahead of him in the pecking order, Sagna seems to be a little rusty as well as whenever he has played, he hasn’t impressed and looks miles from the player he was while at the Gunners.

While he may win more trophies with Manuel Pellegrini’s side, one wonders why he decided to leave Arsenal right when they broke their trophy drought and could have pushed on for better things, especially with him as their starting right back.

Brown Ideye


West Bromwich Albion’s record signing at £10 million, the Nigerian international hasn’t impressed at all for the Baggies.

After scoring 33 league goals in 74 games for Dynamo Kyiv, Ideye has only managed one goal in 10 league games in the Premier League and considering he’s their biggest ever signing, the fact that he can’t even get in the starting eleven nowadays only further highlights how bad a signing he’s been.

Mario Balotelli

Mario Balotelli

What is there to say about the controversial Italian other than aside from the headlines, he is not even close to a valid replacement for Luis Suarez. While the Uruguayan chased the ball, putting his heart and soul into every game, Balotelli is lazy and expects the ball to come to him.

At £16 million, Liverpool fans expected better from a player who has shone in the Premier League before but with not a single league goal scored after 11 games, many have already been frustrated with the Italian who has found himself behind Rickie Lambert in the pecking order.

Radamel Falcao

Radamel Falcao

While he has scored 3 goals in 11 league games, it’s still not good enough for the Colombian who set the world on fire just a few years earlier.

Loaned in from Monaco for a £6 million fee, Falcao will have to do much more – especially fitness wise – if he expects Louis van Gaal to pay over £40 million more to make the deal permanent

Eliaquim Mangala

Eliaquim Mangala

When you pay £32 million for a defender, you expect him to be calm and composed on the ball even if it’s a debut season but Mangala has not shown that he is worth his fee at all.

While he is quick, strong and can be a presence, he has made many key errors which have cost City more than a few times this season while his positioning could use a lot of work. If he was signed for half the fee, maybe his performances would be more acceptable but for a player who cost more than Cesc Fabregas, City have definitely been hung dry by Porto.


Add Some Fun to Your NFL Betting with Season Wins

Season betting is something that’s always been around, but more punters are taking notice of it. As the name implies, they give you the power to take a stand on the number of games a team will win throughout the season. Keep in mind that these are regular season wins, rather than preseason or playoffs. It covers a much narrower window than you might imagine.

Those that love season bets tell us that there’s value in them because they are heavily influenced by market sentiment. People bet with their emotions rather than win numbers and logic. So if you’re a numbers/logic punter, then you have the upper hand. If you have a team that has a strong brand name and reputation, they’re actually weaker than the underdog teams. Good teams are made up of players that do a fantastic job of getting things done, but those players can be traded to other teams. With free agency, players don’t even have to wait on trades anymore. They can do the trading themselves, moving to where they feel the grass is greenest. If a team can’t afford a player, they will move on. So your good team can turn sour, if it’s riding on the wave of one or two key players.

NFL betting

One of the easiest ways to take advantage of the season wins wager is to get terrible teams that were awful last season and see if they’ve done any shopping of their own. This is the first line defense for a bad team that has a bit of money to spend. They will spend it getting players that they feel have the most value in raising the team’s profile and hopefully, their winning records as well.

Don’t get too tied up into season wagering. It’s supposed to be the type of bet that you do with your friends in order to tease each other for the rest of the season. Every “W” in your camp makes you feel good, and every “W” in their camp gives them something to tease you about. Good friendly bets are part of the camaraderie found in NFL betting, but you have to play in order to win!


A Few Overlooked Statistics In NFL Football

Ready to jump right into betting on all of the big NFL football games? Then you need to make sure that you understand NFL statistics. Some punters aren’t big on learning all of the stats, preferring to just look at which teams look good for betting on. That’s a whimsical approach to what could be serious money. Are you sure that you want to give it any less than your most focused effort? It can take some time to learn the stats, but that doesn’t mean that it’s impossible. We’ll go over a few stats with you, and then see about giving you the best advice to get you started.

1. Number of Touchdowns


At first, it might not sound like this is an important statistic. But you would be off base on that. Remember that touchdowns are part of scoring, and scoring is how we determine the point spread. Touchdowns are worth of a lot of points, and that’s always something to think about.

Case in point: Look at Denver with Peyton Manning. Denver knows that Peyton Manning puts up a lot of points. Pitted against a weak defense, they’re going to have a higher point spread because of Manning’s sheer ability to put up a lot of points. But against a strong defense, you’re going to deal with a much tighter spread. It’s really all about the spread when it comes to betting on NFL football.

2. Yards

running attacks

Teams that have good running attacks when they play against a team that doesn’t have good run defense will rack up a ton of yards. So studying the number of yards your chosen team is known to collect can lead you to find whether the team is worth betting on or not. What if the underdog listed in the matchup has great yardage abilities, but is overlooked by the crowd? This is just one more reason why “the wisdom of crowds” might not be to your advantage as a punter.

3. Defense

Defense nfl

A lot of people pick their teams based on offense, but what if you looked at your picks through the lens of good defense? The Pittsburgh Steelers have had great defense over the years, but their defense has suffered as players have been traded to other teams. The Detroit Lions have a great defense this year. Defense is an overlooked factor, and it really shouldn’t be. The right defense can stop an aggressive offense more than people think.

Overall, this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to looking at the numbers. The numbers can pull you away from your token favorite, but you have to ask yourself this: do you want to make money, or do you want to claim so much loyalty that it ends up crippling you? Think about it and try to make better bets!


NFL Season Is Here – Bring on the Parlay Bets!

The NFL season is off to a running start, with plenty of teams going head to head. We love watching all of the big games, but betting on them is even sweeter. If you’ve already done some point spread betting, then you’re ahead of a lot of other people. But what about when you’re ready to take on a little bit more risk than the standard bet brings?

Remember that with higher degrees of risk, we have higher areas of value. We can get bigger hits to our bankroll when we take on calculated risks.

Here’s what happens with a parlay bet: you are placing two or more bets together, and you have to have all of those bets win as a GROUP. That’s the reason why parlays are risky: you have to have all of your teams win, or you don’t get any money back.

Parlay Bets

So if it’s so risky, why do people bet this way? The odds can be a lot higher, sometimes nearly 3 to 1! If you were to bet on the Packers, the Eagles, and the Steelers, you would have to have all of them beat the spread on their individual games. If that happens, when you get the parlay odds. But what happens if one of your teams has a tie game? That’s a “push”, and you get lower odds. But if one of the teams above doesn’t beat the point spread, then you’re in for trouble. You don’t get any money for that bet at all.

Parlay betting is for advanced punters, in our opinion. If you want to take on a little more risk and add some flavor to your betting, then this is definitely a great way to do that. But if the idea of losing money turns making you turn green, then maybe you need to stick with straight bets. critics of parlay betting say that they don’t care for the system because it doesn’t give you great odds, and you would be better off making a bunch of straight bets. Sure, but where’s the thrill? There’s a psychological rush in knowing that we’re doing something a bit risky. We’re drawn to risk, and we always will be. [Read more…]