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Sports Betting Tip: Underdogs in the NFL

In the media coverage of the NFL, there is a great deal of emphasis on the best teams in the league. There is usually a debate about which of the top teams in the league have the best chance at reaching the Super Bowl. While it is only natural for the media focus to be centered around the elite squads in the NFL, the bettor must have an open mind when it comes to the 32 teams in the league. In some ways, the media hype surrounding the glamour teams in the NFL may actually help a savvy bettor.

nfl betting

NFL Betting Popularity

Because of the tremendous popularity of the NFL, sport betting sites see more action on this sport than others. In addition to the professional bettors, there are a lot of NFL fans that will wager on the games. Generally, most fans or casual bettors will wager on the favorite to cover a point spread. Because of these bets, many NFL lines will be shaded towards the favored team.

There are instances where it can be difficult for the oddsmaker to draw any action on an underdog. While it isn’t too hard to draw equal interest in a matchup between two squads that are both competitive, a mismatch on paper will draw some predictable bets. However, the fan’s logic of riding a favorite can be misguided in many ways. Favorites win more often than not in the NFL. In a typical NFL season, favorites will win straight up anywhere from 60-65 percent of the time. However, favorites aren’t any more likely to cover a point spread than an underdog over the course of a season.

Covered or Favorites : A Look at NFL Betting Strategies

In many recent seasons, underdogs have actually covered at a slightly higher rate than favorites. The general fan may rely too much on the past to anticipate future outcomes. As the new season has started, many casual sports bettors will assume that success or failure from a prior year will be repeated. Obviously, there are some franchises that are fairly consistent. In the last decade, the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts were Super Bowl contenders more often than not. Still, many other teams were more inconsistent.

Since 2001, many different NFC franchises have represented the conference in the Super Bowl. This parity indicates how difficult it can be to maintain a high level of play in the NFL. [Read more…]