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Sports bet tips to help You be a Winner

These are common techniques used by sports handicappers. Handicapping sport games means just what it implies. Trying to find which team has an advantage for any reason whatsoever. The teams who are at the highest advantages are the ones you bet on. You can check out Unibet sportsbets and place a bet on your favorite team.

Injuries


Key injuries to key players is very significant. Obviously if a star player on any team goes down it’s going to hurt the team. However, some teams have many star players and even though it still affects them, they can still win. On the other hand some teams look for that lone player to win them games.

An injury to key positions is probably the most important kind of injuries. In most sports there’s always that one position that can make or break a game for you. For Football it’s your quarterback, for Hockey it’s your goaltending and for Baseball it’s your pitcher. Injuries to these positions are important. Let’s say that an NHL goalie gets hurt which is a reasonable assumption. The team resorts to putting a rookie playing his first ever game in net. They are playing the highest scoring team in the league next. This is a horrible situation for the team and the goalie. The end result would be a very lopsided game. The same can be said about a 2nd string quarterback who must face a very tough defense. These are major disadvantages that should be taken advantage of.

Traveling


You want an easy winner for the night? Any teams traveling schedule can be extremely helpful. There are long 5, 6 or even 7 game road trips all the time in every sport by every team. You have to catch teams when they are most vulnerable.

If you look at the stats, you will find that home teams are a much more reliable bet. Few years ago, in the NBA, 65% of games won were by the home team, and only one team had more wins on the road then at home. In the NHL 60% of all games won were on home ice with only 2 teams in the entire league with a more road wins then home wins. The MLB produced 59% of all wins at home, with 2 teams having more road wins. In the shorter NFL season 57% of all wins were at home and 8 teams had better road records. The numbers don’t lie.

So they are on the road and tired. Does that mean they are going to lose every game? No, not necessarily. What if they are playing back to back road games, game 4 and 5 of a 7 game trip? I will bet them to lose game 5. They have already played 4 road games, been in 4 different cities and just played the night before. They have a lot of things going against them. You could also check there opponents schedule. What if the home team hasn’t played in 3 days? They have been at home in their comfortable beds just waiting for this tired battered team to enter their building. And believe me the home team knows the other team is tired and want to capitalize on it. That is one of the reasons that teams home record is usually much better then their road record.

There are a few long road trips and tired teams every week, so you must be on the lookout. You must be careful about a few things when looking at a teams traveling situation. Gambling trends usually indicate a team will usually win in its first game of a long road trip. The reason for this is they know the trip will be tough and they are going to run into some disadvantages along the road. So they try to get that first win so that they can get at least something from the road trip and the first one is their best chance.
Finding a really tired team on a long road trip is only half the battle. Make sure you check out what the opponent has been up to. A lot of times you see a team playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and you make the bets. Then you find out the team you bet on has also played 3 games in 4 nights and now there are no advantages.

You don’t have to always look for the tired road team. Home teams get tired too. Playing a lot of games in a lot of nights, even if at home can be tough. Especially against a team that has been off a couple of days. Another gambling trend is that home teams usually lose their first game back home after a long road trip. It makes sense. You are away from your wife for a couple of weeks; you waste all your energy on taking care of her rather then the game.

By looking at the schedule you can also check to see how many days in a row a team had to travel. It could be up as high as 15 if you’re lucky. I am not talking about 15 road games in a row either. Let’s say the New York Knicks go on a 4 game road trip. They fly back home for a home game. They go back on the road for a 3 game road trip. Come back home to play the first game of a home and home against the Raptors. How many days have they traveled? They have traveled none stop for 10 days. They traveled to the first 3 game road trip, traveled home for a home game, traveled on another 3 game trip, traveled back home to play Toronto, and finally traveled to Toronto for the final game of the home and home. That’s a lot of traveling. It is much different then a 5 game home stand where you never leave the city for about 2 weeks. Bad scheduling for one team can give another team a huge advantage. So always bet on the team with the advantage.

Motivation

Motivation

I get excited just thinking about these types of games. Revenge games are by far the best games to make you money. We are not talking physical advantages anymore. Traveling is trying to catch a tired team and take advantage of them because they are not as physically ready as another team. Injuries is taking advantage of a team because an important member of the team isn’t physically playing. When dealing with a revenge game it’s all mental, and the mind is more powerful then the body.

You always want to bet on a team that is focused and motivated. Let’s say that the Oakland Raiders lose 54-0 to the Kansas City Chiefs. That is an embarrassment and the whole city of Oakland will be talking about it not to mention the rest of the National Football League. Now I guarantee you that the next time they play, the Raiders will do everything in their powers to win that game and get some respect back. Chances are they will probably win. They are mentally prepared for it, and they will be playing with that refuse to lose mentality. The coaching staff isn’t stupid either. They will be constantly reminding the team of the miserable loss they suffered the last time they played. So the Raiders will be ready to come out strong. Furthermore what will the Chiefs mentality be? Its human nature for every Kansas City player to think, we beat these guys 54-0 they suck, we are better than them. It is clear who has the advantage in this game before the game even starts.

Again, you have to remember these athletes are only human and think like you and I. What if you were fighting for a playoff spot and a certain team beats you and costs you a playoff spot. The next year you play the same team but the situations are reversed. They are fighting for a spot and you have the power to eliminate them. Revenge is a very powerful weapon.

Ultimately revenge is a motivational tool. You always want to bet on the motivated team. There are always different circumstances and lesser degrees of motivation. If a player gets mistreated by an organization and they trade him on bad terms. His first game against his old team with his new team is one he wants to desperately win. His new team wants to “win it for him”.

I usually keep my eye out on home and homes. If there isn’t a huge discrepancy in talent between the 2 teams I usually wait to see the results of the first game. I then bet on the loser of game 1 to win the second game. It’s the revenge factor again. The loss is still fresh in the player’s heads and though it isn’t as significant as other situations, it can still make you money. If the team that lost the first game was on the road, there mentality will be you beat us in your home now we will see how good you are in our building in front of our fans. If the team that lost the first game was at home, there mentality will be, they beat us in our own building lets beat them in theirs. The power of the mind can be very significant.

Line Movements

line movements sports betting

What are they and why do they occur? A line is the number of points a team is favored to win by. You could wake up one morning and find that the line for the Miami Dolphins to beat the Buffalo Bills is at -2.5, which you plan to bet. You decide to eat some breakfast first. After breakfast you find the line has gone up to -3.5. Bad news right? Not necessarily.

The reasons why lines move is simple. Too many people are betting on a certain team. Line movements happen to minimize loses by sport bookies. Imagine you bet $100 on Miami to beat Buffalo by the -2.5 margin. There are also 10,000 other gamblers that made that exact same bet. That is 1 million dollars worth of bets saying Miami wins by 3 or more points. What if Miami does win by 3? Sport bookies will lose 1 million dollars, which is way too much for their liking. To prevent such a huge loss the lines change.

Now let’s say that 5,000 people made the $100 bet on Miami at -2.5. That is $500,000 worth of bets on Miami by -2.5. Sports bookies will then take the precaution of moving the line up to -3.5. Then another 5,000 bets are made at $100 each. That’s another $500,000 on Miami. There is 1 million dollars riding on the Dolphins again. The Dolphins end up winning by 3. Now in this situation the bookies pay the winners who bet on Miami -2.5 and collect by the people who bet Miami by -3.5. They don’t lose a fortune.

It sounds like a disadvantage to you the gambler, but it could very well be a blessing in disguise. Let me explain. There are tons of professional gamblers out there. People who have none stop stats and trends and have done hours and hours of research on every game. When there is a game that is identified as a mismatch or an inaccurate line, a lot of professionals will be able to spot it. So naturally there will be thousands of dollars being bet on it. Why does a line move? Because thousands of dollars are being bet on it. Therefore when millions of people are throwing down all kinds of money on a certain team they obviously know something. The line goes up half a point or even a point, which if this game is a mismatch wouldn’t really make a difference.

Line movements can be your friend. However I should also mention that there are also public line movements. Public line movements occur when average Joes who are anything but professional gamblers all coincidentally bet on the same team. A massive amount of bets will trigger a line movement. These line movements do not occur as often as the line movements you want but they do happen. To avoid this you should always do your own research just to verify if the line movements are genuine or not.

Probability

Probability

Sports is all about streaks and trends. There are teams with winning streaks and there are teams with losing streaks. There are many theories about when a team is hot you stick with them. I agree with that, to a certain degree. There are people out there that base their bets just on the fact that a team has won or lost a few in a row. If they are on a winning streak they bet them to win. If on a losing streak they bet them to lose. However you have take probability into consideration and that’s what a lot of people don’t do.

The bottom line is winning streaks do end. There is nothing more frustrating then betting on a team who has won 11 games in a row against some of the best teams the league has to offer, then watching them struggle and lose to a team who is under .500. It happens. It has happened to me many times and it bothers me just thinking about it.

To avoid this you have to understand winning streaks and probability. In Baseball and Basketball, extended winning streaks average about 10 games. In Hockey it’s 7 games and in Football the number is about 6 games. Usually, after that is when it is considered that a team is “due” for a loss.

Now I believe that a winning streak can go on forever, but only if a team has distinct advantages every night. If they don’t have advantages every night, then there’s a chance of the streak ending, even if playing a bad team. You have to take probability into consideration. Let’s say a team has won 9 in row and has no distinct advantages. There luck is going run out sooner or later. If I came up to you right now and said “I bet you $100 that the Boston Celtics will win 9 in a row starting from tonight”, would you take that bet? Think about it carefully. You would because it probably won’t happen. You have to look at probability carefully.

Nine game winning streaks are not that common, so the next time a team has won 8 games in a row think about it before betting the 9th game. If a team doesn’t have a distinct advantage and is on a winning streak higher than the numbers mentioned above don’t bet on them just because they are “hot”. You could be disappointed.

Probability can be a very good strategy for making bets as well as staying away from bets. You don’t have to limit the probability theory for just winning streaks either. For example if an average Football team got 3 shutouts in the first 3 weeks. Would you bet on them in week 4? I wouldn’t. How long could that possibly last? A streak like that usually ends in style, like giving up 45 points! Or if a hockey team has scored 6 goals or more for 6 straight games, would you bet them to win the next game? If they do win, it will probably be a 1-0 win. Probability can be your friend

The Sports Season

A professional sports season is considerably long. There is plenty of time to make bets and make money. You have to be disciplined. You don’t have to make bets everyday. If there is a day that you don’t like the games, don’t bet.
A pro season is usually broken down into 4 time periods. The beginning of the year, the middle of the year, the end of the year and the playoffs. Each period has its advantages and disadvantages. Here are all 4 time periods explained in further detail.

The Beginning of the Year

The beginning of the year can be a very unpredictable one. Who knows how new players are going to react to new teams or how some teams will survive with the loss of a key player. There are also those young teams that have been shit for the last few years, but their young players are getting better. A couple of breakout players and that shit team can all of a sudden be a playoff contender. The point is you will never know who is for real and who isn’t right at the beginning of the year.

The beginning of the year is the best time to take some chances on the underdog. A lot of underdogs win at the beginning of the year. The reason for this simple. A team that didn’t make the playoffs the previous year has had a long time off. They are eager and can’t wait Ito get right back into action. No matter what the standings said at the end of last year, on day 1 of the regular season even the worst teams are tied for first overall with 0 points. It’s a fresh start and bad teams know that they will probably be hard pressed to make the playoffs. So the wins even on day 1 count for a lot. Bad teams don’t take anything for granted. They don’t want to fall behind in the standings early because their playoff hopes depend on early season success.

The better teams tend to think the exact opposite. They played an extra 2 months of intense meaningful playoff games. So what meaning do early regular season games have? Elite teams already know they are going to make the playoffs so a couple of early loses won’t mean much. Good teams think the real season is the playoffs so they tend to be too lazy at the beginning of the year.

The Middle of the Year

You should have a pretty good idea who is for real and who isn’t by the middle of the year. This is the time when most of the better teams should start winning more often then they did at the beginning of the year.

Reality will also start to settle in for the bad teams and they will start losing more games as well as more confidence. If you don’t like unexpected surprises then this is a good time period to for you.

The End of the Year

The end of the year is when your going to get most of those “must win” games. Teams are fighting for home advantage as well as for a playoff spot near the end of the regular season. You can catch your share of motivated teams and a motivated team is always a good bet.

The end of the year also produces those teams that have already clinched everything they possibly can. If this scenario occurs then even the best teams will lose. There is absolutely NO motivation to win as well as a lot of rested players to avoid injuries before the playoffs start.

The Playoffs

In my opinion the playoffs is the worst time to bet. Think about it. There are no advantages. Every team is motivated to win in the playoffs, so you don’t really have a big advantage there. The schedules are the same for both teams, no catching a team tired on a long road trip. Anything can happen in the playoffs and to me it’s a high risk time.

There are still some good opportunities in the playoffs. Every game is a must win, but some games are more important to some teams. Like if the team with home advantage loses game 1, game 2 is a must. Statistically game 7 winners are usually the home team. Revenge can also play a big factor in playoff series, if a team got eliminated the year before and is looking for some payback the year after.