post

Introduction to NFL Futures Wagering

Each February, the NFL season concludes on an epic stage. The spectacle of the Super Bowl marks the end of one journey but the beginning of another. For football bettors, the next Super Bowl quickly becomes the focus once a season is in the books. Bookmakers like betolimp.com promptly post the odds for an upcoming Super Bowl right after the conclusion of an NFL season. There are many factors for the bettor to evaluate in an NFL futures pool.

There are three main NFL futures pools. The main one is on the Super Bowl. There are also pools for conference and division titles. While bookmakers have to be extremely focused to set an accurate NFL point spread, there is more leeway in a futures pool.

Super Bowl Futures Pool

For a Super Bowl pool of 32 teams, only one club is going to win. So, there is a good deal of flexibility that is available to the oddsmaker. Because of this, the Super Bowl odds for the upcoming year can be released at the conclusion of the season. Initially, the odds will be greatly influenced by what has occurred in the prior season after all, the opening odds have been set before any offseason personnel moves have been made. When the odds are first released, the savvy bettor will be looking to find some teams that could have some upside for the coming season. Because of the structure of the league, bad teams can become playoff contenders from year to year.

In the previous decade, many squads went from a last place team one year to a division champion the next. The Miami Dolphins posted a woeful 1-15 record in 2007. In 2008, a rejuvenated Miami club went 11-5 to win the AFC East. Since 2001, nine different franchises have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl. These are examples of how quickly things can change in the league from one year to the next. [Read more…]

post

Will Professional Sports Survive the Concussion Epidemic?

The National Football League (NFL) should be commended for the initial steps it has taken to address the issue of concussions. Rejecting the short-term and potential long-term consequences of concussions is an out-of-date concept.

As recently as 2006, the NFL published literature minimizing the impact of concussions. In fairness to them, there has been a marked increase in our understanding of concussions over the past 10 years. Have the actions undertaken by the NFL to address concussions been proportionate to our increased knowledge in this field?

nfl-concussion

Enrollment in ‘Pop Warner’ Football reportedly declined by 9.5% between 2010 and 2012, and concern regarding head injury was cited as the primary reason. In the current issue of the Journal, Hotz et al (pages 11-16) have reported their find-ings in high school sports, including football.

For a league with current annual revenue of $9 billion and a projected target of $25 billion per year by 2027, has the NFL invested sufficiently in a nationwide education and awareness program to protect the brains of children and, ultimately, their own sport from itself?

The NFL deserves credit for instituting rule changes to address concussions. What is the right balance of protecting the integrity of the game and the health of its players? Has the NFL done enough to care for retired players suffering the consequences of head injury? Does the lack of guaranteed contracts in the NFL create a culture conducive to players reporting concussions? Is it the responsibility of the NFL to invest in independent clinical research? If so, is the NFL providing sufficient funds to address objective measures to diagnose concussions (eg, neuroimaging, biomarkers), and therapeutics for the short and long-term impacts of concussions?

The challenge surrounding concussions are systemic to our society (school boards, workers boards, insurance industry, various sports, etc); however, in the current issue of the Journal, we have approached concussions from the perspective of a game close to our hearts. I watch the NFL every Sunday religiously – Monday and Thursday too, if possible. I am expecting my first son in the next few months and I am looking forward to introducing him to the sport I love.

It is unfair to be overly critical of the NFL when they have taken several positive steps to address concussions. The NFL is a powerful machine that has the ability, if it chooses, to play a major leadership role in the discussion surrounding concussions beyond football.

Although this message is focused on football – every athlete participating in a major sport is susceptible to concussions – hockey, basketball, baseball, soccer, etc. Will other professional leagues that devote less attention to this issue at this time be proactive?

Professional sport is a business. Children look up to professional athletes and develop their love for the game watching their favourite players. The ultimate solution requires a balance between the importance of health and safety and profitability. It is imperative that the leagues maintain fiscal responsibility to ensure the quality of the product remains high.

Would it make sense for the major sports leagues to work collaboratively in the scientific arena of concussions? The five major sports leagues could jointly develop a global concussion education and research program with the output reaching every child’s classroom. The shared infrastructure would lower overhead costs for the respective leagues. This solution provides compassion toward children and professional athletes while maintaining fiscal responsibility for shareholders – a win win.

I believe football and other sports will survive; however, it is imperative that the aforementioned issues be tackled head on… no pun intended.

Commissioners Goodell, Bettman, Silver, Manfred and Blatter, the time is now – each of you has the power to be instrumental in protecting the brains of children across the globe – what a legacy to leave!

Dr. Neilank Jha is a neurosurgeon and the head of Konkussion Inc- a concussion treatment program in Toronto. The full whitepaper, “Solving the Concussion Crisis: Practical Solutions”, can be viewed here.

For interview requests with Dr. Jha, please contact Jordan at Toronto PR Firm Grey Smoke Media.

post

Sports Betting Tip: Underdogs in the NFL

In the media coverage of the NFL, there is a great deal of emphasis on the best teams in the league. There is usually a debate about which of the top teams in the league have the best chance at reaching the Super Bowl. While it is only natural for the media focus to be centered around the elite squads in the NFL, the bettor must have an open mind when it comes to the 32 teams in the league. In some ways, the media hype surrounding the glamour teams in the NFL may actually help a savvy bettor.

nfl betting

NFL Betting Popularity

Because of the tremendous popularity of the NFL, sport betting sites see more action on this sport than others. In addition to the professional bettors, there are a lot of NFL fans that will wager on the games. Generally, most fans or casual bettors will wager on the favorite to cover a point spread. Because of these bets, many NFL lines will be shaded towards the favored team.

There are instances where it can be difficult for the oddsmaker to draw any action on an underdog. While it isn’t too hard to draw equal interest in a matchup between two squads that are both competitive, a mismatch on paper will draw some predictable bets. However, the fan’s logic of riding a favorite can be misguided in many ways. Favorites win more often than not in the NFL. In a typical NFL season, favorites will win straight up anywhere from 60-65 percent of the time. However, favorites aren’t any more likely to cover a point spread than an underdog over the course of a season.

Covered or Favorites : A Look at NFL Betting Strategies

In many recent seasons, underdogs have actually covered at a slightly higher rate than favorites. The general fan may rely too much on the past to anticipate future outcomes. As the new season has started, many casual sports bettors will assume that success or failure from a prior year will be repeated. Obviously, there are some franchises that are fairly consistent. In the last decade, the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts were Super Bowl contenders more often than not. Still, many other teams were more inconsistent.

Since 2001, many different NFC franchises have represented the conference in the Super Bowl. This parity indicates how difficult it can be to maintain a high level of play in the NFL. [Read more…]

post

How to Bet on Preseason NFL Football

The beginning of the 2015-16 NFL football season kicks off August 9th with the NFL Hall of Fame game. The Pittsburgh Steelers will take on the Minnesota Vikings in the Steel City. It sounds like an exciting game to wager on during the regular season, but betting on preseason games is a bit different. Here are a few tips to help you make the most educated wager:

Keep the Bet Small

It’s exciting to finally have American football back on television, but don’t be tempted to go crazy the first preseason game. It’s always important to understand how a preseason game works before you place a wager. After all, preseason is all about fine tuning each team’s action plan for the season.

NFL Preseason 2015 Bet

This means the starters usually play the 1st quarter and the 3rd quarter, and then the back-ups and 3rd stringers play the rest. It allows the players to build chemistry, get all the kinks out of the way, and it even helps decide who will be on the final 53-man roster. We recommend betting no more than 30% of what you would normally play.

The Offseason

This is where most of your research will come into play. Take for instance the Pittsburgh Steelers. Troy Polamalu retired, their defense has basically been overhauled with new talent, and their 1st string offense could be the best in the league this year. You won’t be seeing Big Ben playing for an extensive period of time, because he’s the centerpiece of their offense.

Then you have to take a look at the Minnesota Vikings. They dealt with Adrian Peterson’s antics the entire offseason, the franchise is sold on keeping Teddy Bridgewater as the mainstay quarterback, they acquired deep threat WR Mike Wallace, and said goodbye to several defensive players; including Jared Allen.

Expect to see WR Antonio Brown and WR Mike Wallace get a few chances downfield. If any of them connect, this could be a surprising “Over” line to wager. It’s surprising, because the first game of the preseason typically isn’t a high scoring affair. In fact, over the last 5 years; the average total points during was 31. In fact, the game that went over was the New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins in 2013’s Hall of Fame game (44).

The Backup Players

One area you also need to research is the back players. This goes far deeper than the quarterbacks. Even though we would side with Shaun Hill who is probably one of the better back-ups in the league, the running backs and defense will be just as important. Don’t worry too much about the wide outs except for the first-stringers, because none of the back-ups will “really” make an impact. [Read more…]

post

It’s Time for The Super Bowl – Get Your Bets In!

The Super Bowl kicks off this Sunday, and it’s going to be between the Seahawks and the Patriots. Super Bowl ads are already being discussed, and people are already hitting the grocery store for all of the snacks necessary for the big game. It’s going to be a very long Sunday, and glory rests with the team that can truly pull ahead to the big win.

But what about the betting crowd? It’s time to get your bets in, and there are a few things that you might want to think about.

First and foremost, you want to see whether you’re going to bet on the favorite or not. There are so many different bets to choose from in the world of NFL betting, but the Super Bowl tends to cloud people’s judgment. Instead of looking at the numbers, they go immediately to “gut feelings” of who will win and who will lose. That’s a bad idea, on a wide variety of levels. Of course, if you don’t plan to have a lot of skin in the game, you can probably get away with just doing a few prop bets. But if you’re trying to think like a serious gambler, you need to think about as much data as possible to reap the rewards you deserve.

Super Bowl

One, betting on the favorite isn’t always a good idea. But looking at this year’s Super Bowl underdog yields some strong disadvantages. It can be summed up in one word: Deflategate. The fact that there is an ominous cloud of confusion, cheating, and misdirection around the Patriots means that they could be at a strong disadvantage in the actual Super Bowl. Morale is going to be a lot lower than it would be otherwise, giving you the opportunity to either bet on how much the Pats will lose by, or how much they will win by if they manage to do an upset.

Big money can ride on these games, making it very tempting to bet the farm on the outcomes. Be sure that you’re still not risking so much money on the Super Bowl that you cannot afford to replace later on. If you can stick to that rule, you’ll be better off than people that feel the need to throw everything they have on the “big game” so they can get the “big win” that they’ve been chasing all season. Do you know what real punters call people that do this?

Broke. 🙂

Be sure that you’re staying as strategic as possible on this game. Strip away the hype and what do you get? A football game, like any other football game. NFL guidelines will still have to be observed, even though the stakes on the game are so high. We will still have a winner and a loser. Life will go on after the Super bowl, and both teams will still make a lot of money in the long run. Make sure that when you sit down to make your bets before the game that you know not just who you’re going for, but why you’re going to put hard earned money on their outcome. That’s the difference between real betting and just throwing your money into the wind. Good luck!

post

Add Some Fun to Your NFL Betting with Season Wins

Season betting is something that’s always been around, but more punters are taking notice of it. As the name implies, they give you the power to take a stand on the number of games a team will win throughout the season. Keep in mind that these are regular season wins, rather than preseason or playoffs. It covers a much narrower window than you might imagine.

Those that love season bets tell us that there’s value in them because they are heavily influenced by market sentiment. People bet with their emotions rather than win numbers and logic. So if you’re a numbers/logic punter, then you have the upper hand. If you have a team that has a strong brand name and reputation, they’re actually weaker than the underdog teams. Good teams are made up of players that do a fantastic job of getting things done, but those players can be traded to other teams. With free agency, players don’t even have to wait on trades anymore. They can do the trading themselves, moving to where they feel the grass is greenest. If a team can’t afford a player, they will move on. So your good team can turn sour, if it’s riding on the wave of one or two key players.

NFL betting

One of the easiest ways to take advantage of the season wins wager is to get terrible teams that were awful last season and see if they’ve done any shopping of their own. This is the first line defense for a bad team that has a bit of money to spend. They will spend it getting players that they feel have the most value in raising the team’s profile and hopefully, their winning records as well.

Don’t get too tied up into season wagering. It’s supposed to be the type of bet that you do with your friends in order to tease each other for the rest of the season. Every “W” in your camp makes you feel good, and every “W” in their camp gives them something to tease you about. Good friendly bets are part of the camaraderie found in NFL betting, but you have to play in order to win!

post

A Few Overlooked Statistics In NFL Football

Ready to jump right into betting on all of the big NFL football games? Then you need to make sure that you understand NFL statistics. Some punters aren’t big on learning all of the stats, preferring to just look at which teams look good for betting on. That’s a whimsical approach to what could be serious money. Are you sure that you want to give it any less than your most focused effort? It can take some time to learn the stats, but that doesn’t mean that it’s impossible. We’ll go over a few stats with you, and then see about giving you the best advice to get you started.

1. Number of Touchdowns

Touchdowns

At first, it might not sound like this is an important statistic. But you would be off base on that. Remember that touchdowns are part of scoring, and scoring is how we determine the point spread. Touchdowns are worth of a lot of points, and that’s always something to think about.

Case in point: Look at Denver with Peyton Manning. Denver knows that Peyton Manning puts up a lot of points. Pitted against a weak defense, they’re going to have a higher point spread because of Manning’s sheer ability to put up a lot of points. But against a strong defense, you’re going to deal with a much tighter spread. It’s really all about the spread when it comes to betting on NFL football.

2. Yards

running attacks

Teams that have good running attacks when they play against a team that doesn’t have good run defense will rack up a ton of yards. So studying the number of yards your chosen team is known to collect can lead you to find whether the team is worth betting on or not. What if the underdog listed in the matchup has great yardage abilities, but is overlooked by the crowd? This is just one more reason why “the wisdom of crowds” might not be to your advantage as a punter.

3. Defense

Defense nfl

A lot of people pick their teams based on offense, but what if you looked at your picks through the lens of good defense? The Pittsburgh Steelers have had great defense over the years, but their defense has suffered as players have been traded to other teams. The Detroit Lions have a great defense this year. Defense is an overlooked factor, and it really shouldn’t be. The right defense can stop an aggressive offense more than people think.

Overall, this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to looking at the numbers. The numbers can pull you away from your token favorite, but you have to ask yourself this: do you want to make money, or do you want to claim so much loyalty that it ends up crippling you? Think about it and try to make better bets!